Bismarck Rewane, the Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, has forecasted that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 3.5 percent by 2026, bringing the nation’s gross domestic product close to $400 billion.

He shared this information during the Access Bank Customer Forum held in Lagos on Thursday.

 “The Nigerian economy will grow at 3.5 per cent (approximately $400bn). Nigeria is on track to becoming the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa,” Rewane said.

He mentioned that the nation’s foreign exchange auction system would improve in efficiency, with unrestricted foreign reserves expected to hit $20 billion.

“There will be an efficient forex auction system, and unencumbered foreign reserves will hit $20bn,” he noted.

Rewane forecasted that inflation would fall to 22 percent by 2026, anticipating a yearly decrease in the monetary policy rate to 20 percent. This reduction is expected to result in a drop in the amount of non-performing loans within the banking sector.

“We will see inflation drop to 22 per cent, and the MPR is likely to come down to 20 per cent, which will reduce bad loans,” he explained.

Even with these encouraging developments, Rewane cautioned that the naira is expected to exchange at N1,550 per dollar in the black market, highlighting intervention funds, remittances from abroad, and exchange rate regulations as crucial elements influencing the currency’s value.

Rewane attributed these enhancements to intervention funds, remittances from the diaspora, and policies aimed at adjusting the exchange rate.

“These gains are driven by intervention funds, remittances, and adjustments to exchange rate policies,” he noted.

He stated that total factor productivity is projected to grow to 2.6 percent by 2026, an increase from 2.4 percent in 2024, and that the nation’s trade balance is anticipated to reach $9.3 billion, up from $8.42 billion.

“Total factor productivity will increase to 2.6 per cent, and our trade balance will grow to $9.3bn,” he stated.

Rewane forecasted that petrol prices would settle at N900 per litre, supported by a reliable supply ensured by production from the Dangote refinery and modular refineries.

“We expect petrol to stabilise at N900 per litre due to increased production from Dangote refinery and modular refineries,” he said.

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He also estimated that the stock market capitalization could increase to N58 trillion, following the inclusion of major companies like Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

Regarding commodity prices, Rewane forecasted that a crate of tomatoes would be priced at N20,000, a bag of rice would cost N75,000, and a bag of beans would hit N110,000 by 2026.

The head of FDC highlighted that inflation continues to be a significant obstacle for Nigerian businesses, impacting their profit margins.

Additionally, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy mentioned that Nigeria’s foreign reserves have experienced a net inflow of approximately $2.35 billion into the Central Bank.

“There has been a net inflow in the first seven months of this year of about $2.35bn every month,” Edun stated, adding that the increase had played a key role in stabilising the naira in the forex market.

“We also have foreign exchange liquidity. The gross reserves are up,” the minister continued.

He attributed the growth to the government’s efforts, saying, “On the fiscal side as well, government revenues are growing.”

Edun emphasized that the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio was at 10%, with revenue to GDP at 15%, and urged increased investment in infrastructure and social safety nets to improve these low figures.

Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, voiced concerns about the current economic outlook, comparing it to the more optimistic projections made by Bismarck Rewane.

“Our projection is slow, and I do not pray that Bismarck’s projection comes to pass,” Oyedele said.

He emphasized the challenges of divestment, inadequate education, and increasing unemployment, pointing out that the Nigerian currency had depreciated in value by ten times more than the Kenyan shilling.

He emphasized the importance of making decisions based on data.

“We must leverage data and evidence to ensure it serves our interests,” he stated.

Oyedele mentioned that the Federal Government aims to lower corporate income tax in the upcoming years. He also noted that the government seeks to lessen the tax burden on businesses while focusing on improving collection efficiency to boost revenue.

Former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello allegedly avoided being arrested by Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) officers on Wednesday, with the aid of the current governor, Usman Ododo.

The EFCC had surrounded the Kogi State Government Lodge in Abuja in an effort to capture Bello, who is being sought in connection with a suspected N80.2 billion fraud case.

Despite the operation, Ododo is said to have assisted Bello in evading arrest, using the protection he has as the sitting governor.

This incident mirrors a previous attempt in April, where Ododo reportedly helped Bello escape from EFCC officials during another raid in Abuja.

On Wednesday, following Bello and Ododo’s visit to the EFCC headquarters, the commission refuted claims that Bello was in their custody.

EFCC spokesperson Dele Oyewale clarified that Bello was not held, even though Bello’s media team claimed he had visited the agency.

Commenting on the events of Wednesday, EFCC representatives stated that Ododo once more assisted Bello in evading capture, similar to what happened in April.

An official stated, “Yahaya Bello has not been arrested. The Kogi State governor prevented operatives from doing their work yesterday just like he did the other time. He took him away and our men could not do anything because of the immunity he (Ododo) is enjoying.”

An analysis of Nigeria’s Multidimensional poverty index by ActionAid Nigeria has revealed that about 65 percent of poor people, that is 86 million people live in the northern part of the country, while 36 percent, nearly 47 million people live in the South.

The analysis indicated the poorest states in the country to include Sokoto, Bayelsa, Jigawa, Kebbi, Gombe, and Yobe, but cannot determine which of these states is the poorest.

The organisation disclosed this at the launch of its report on Austerity Measure, poverty and Gender Inequality in Nigeria in Abuja, saying Nigeria’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for 2022 found that 63% of the population, amounting to approximately 133mn Nigerians, are multidimensionally poor.

Analysing the report, the Country Director of ActionAid Andrew Mamedu noted that Poverty and inequality do not just happen; they result from economic, social, and political decisions made by the state and citizens.

He said “The critical policy decisions reflected in the key macroeconomic indicators show the rate and trend of poverty and inequality. Extant Nigerian negative indicators on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, interest rate, unemployment, debts, and deficits, among others, can only lead to one direction, increased poverty.”

Mamedu further stated that the underlying cause of the current spate of poverty is rooted in the heavy burden of austerity measures, imposed as part of broader macroeconomic policies.

He disclosed that based on their research, from 2010 to 2020, Nigeria’s debt stock ballooned by over 300%, reaching a staggering ₦31 trillion by the end of 2020​ , and as of March 31st, 2024, debt stock stands at USD 91,463.99, an equivalent of N121, 670.49. trillion consuming 74% of government revenue and leaving little for vital sectors such as education, healthcare, and social protection​.

He pointed out that keeping large numbers of people excluded from access to economic resources, employment, healthcare, adequate food, clean water and sanitation, education, skills, and technology, will result in a reduction of future productive human potential.

He stressed that well-designed and sustained investments in areas such as maternal and child health, education, and social protection would yield significant dividends for society.

“Conversely, no society can expect to achieve sustained economic and social progress while significant numbers of its population often disproportionately women and girls – are poorly nourished, in poor health, and lack the education and/or skills needed for their own and their families’ development,” he stated

The Minister of Budget and National Planning Atiku Bagudu who was represented by the Director of Microeconomic Philip Okwonkwo wondered if poverty and inequality could be tackled at the same time.

He maintained that the issue of poverty is a global phenomenon as it is not unique to Nigeria and Africa alone and harped on the need for stakeholders to collaborate to empower the poor people in society.

The Presidency has announced that President Bola Tinubu will not be attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly session in New York this year.

According to a statement released by his spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, on Thursday, President Tinubu has decided to prioritise domestic issues and address the country’s challenges, particularly in the aftermath of the recent devastating flooding.

As a result, Vice President Kashim Shettima has been directed to lead Nigeria’s delegation to the UNGA 79.

During the session, which runs from September 24 to 28, 2024, Vice President Shettima will deliver Nigeria’s national statement to the General Assembly, participate in key sideline events, and engage in bilateral meetings.

The high-level general debate will focus on the theme “Leaving no one behind: Acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.

The Nigeria Union of Pensioners, South West zone, on Thursday rejected the N70,000 minimum wage that the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) negotiated, which was signed into law by President Bola Tinubu.

They urged organised labour to return to the negotiating table while blaming them for allowing the Federal Government to trick them into accepting the amount in the first place.

The NUP Southwest noted that before the N70,000 was even implemented, the federal government had gone ahead to further increase the price of petrol, saying that the NLC and TUC that went into that negotiation were blindfolded and naïve.

The pensioners also said that they wholeheartedly support the autonomy of the local government, provided that whatever arrangement is being put in place, the pensions of primary school teachers and the local government pensioners at the local level are not to be tampered with.

The NUP Zonal Public Relations Officer and Secretary of Oyo State NUP, Dr Olusegun Abatan, stated this in Ado-Ekiti, the Ekiti State capital, while addressing newsmen after the zonal meeting of the pensioners.

He said that labour leaders ought to be more clever when dealing with politicians.

“There are two burning issues that we need to put forward to the public domain. The first issue is the agreement between labour and the Federal Government over the minimum wage of N70,000,” he said.

“The NUP Southwest debated it extensively and we found out that before the N70,000 was even implemented, the federal government had gone ahead to further increase the price of petrol. And we concluded that the two labour centres that went into that negotiation were blindfolded; they went there naïve.

“They forgot that when you are dining with the devil, your spoon must be very long, and when you are dining with the politicians, your spoon must be longer than that of the devil. So, the federal government took advantage of their naivety and the inexperience of Comrade Ajaero and Osifo by tricking them into accepting N70,000 and that they would not increase fuel prices.

“But no sooner did they agree than the federal government went ahead to increase the price. To that extent, the NUP Southwest is rejecting the minimum wage that the labour has negotiated and advises that they should go back to the negotiating table and insist on the N250,000 they initially wanted.

“What is the value of N70,000? It is just about sixty litres of fuel. We say they should return to the negotiating table, and if going on strike will bring about an improvement, then we will support it. These people are not reducing their level of enjoyment; rather, their level of profligacy is increasing minute by minute. It is only the workers that are expected to tighten their belts; they don’t even have belts because their stomachs are too big to take a belt.”

On Local Government Autonomy, Abatan said, “NUP wholeheartedly supports it. But with the condition that whatever arrangement is being put in place, the pensions of primary school teachers and the local government pensioners at the local level are not to be tampered with. The salaries of working teachers should also continue. The salaries of LG workers and allowances of the traditional rulers should be taken care of as the first-line charges.”

Nigeria’s Super Eagles have retained their 39th position in the latest FIFA men’s world rankings released on Thursday. During the review period, the Super Eagles played two matches.

They secured a 3-0 victory over the Cheetahs of Benin Republic and were held to a 0-0 draw by the Amavubi of Rwanda. Both matches were qualifiers for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.

On the African continent, the three-time AFCON champions are ranked sixth.

The top five teams in Africa are Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, Cote d’Ivoire, and Tunisia.