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Naira Among Sub-Saharan Africa’s Weakest Currencies in 2024 – World Bank

The Nigerian Naira has emerged as one of the weakest-performing currencies in sub-Saharan Africa by the end of August 2024, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse report published by the World Bank.

The report highlights that the Naira’s poor performance is comparable to that of the Ethiopian Birr and the South Sudanese Pound, which have also recorded significant declines in the region.

The World Bank attributed the depreciation of the Naira to a sharp increase in the demand for US dollars, coupled with limited inflows of foreign currency.

This demand surge has been driven by various financial institutions, asset managers, and other market participants, including non-financial users, seeking to secure dollars through the parallel market.

Meanwhile, slow foreign exchange disbursements by Nigeria’s central bank to currency exchange operators have further exacerbated the situation, limiting access to foreign exchange and contributing to the Naira’s downward spiral.

The report noted that, as of August 2024, the Naira had lost approximately 43 percent of its value since the beginning of the year.

This sharp decline places it among the worst-performing currencies across the region.

Both the Ethiopian Birr and the South Sudanese Pound have also experienced similar trajectories, reflecting widespread challenges with currency stability in several African economies.

The Naira’s struggle deepened toward the end of August, as it continued to lose ground against the US dollar.

On Tuesday, the currency weakened significantly, trading at ₦1,658.97 per dollar, compared to ₦1,552.92 per dollar on Monday. The report underscores that the continuous depreciation has resulted from pressures in the parallel market, where dollar demand remains strong despite limited supply.

In addition to market dynamics, the depreciation reflects broader structural issues in the Nigerian economy, including foreign exchange management challenges, inflationary pressures, and a lack of sufficient foreign investments to support the currency.

With limited dollar inflows and ongoing delays in the central bank’s foreign exchange interventions, the Naira remains under severe pressure.

This trend raises concerns over Nigeria’s economic stability and highlights the need for comprehensive policy measures to restore confidence in the local currency.

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Trump’s crypto platform falters on first day of sales

Former US president Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency platform had a faltering sales launch Tuesday, with only a fraction of its digital tokens that went on the market finding a buyer.

The Republican candidate announced in mid-September that he, along with his sons and entrepreneurs, would launch the platform named World Liberty Financial.

Some 20 billion digital tokens, priced at 1.5 cents each, were offered by the company — a total value of $300 million — but just three percent had been purchased by Tuesday evening.

The tokens can be used as cryptocurrencies and give buyers a vote on the platform’s governance.

Many observers blamed the low sales on technical problems, as the company’s website suffered outages earlier in the day.

World Liberty Financial will enable users to lend or borrow cryptocurrencies to or from one another, a service already offered by many platforms, one of the best-known of which is Aave.

During his presidency Trump referred to cryptocurrencies as a scam, but has since radically changed his position, presenting himself as a “pro-bitcoin president” if elected in November.

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Shell will remain in Nigeria for long term, says MD

The Managing Director (MD) and Country Chair of Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), Osagie Okunbor, has said that the firm will remain in Nigeria for the long term.

Okunbor confirmed Shell’s continued presence in Nigeria, despite the company’s planned divestment of its onshore assets at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit (#NES30) in Abuja on Tuesday.

“Shell is in Nigeria for the long term. We are not going away, we are re-balancing our portfolio from the on-shore, while we focus on and invest much more in our deepwater operations,” Okunbor declared.

“I repeat it that Shell is not leaving Nigeria. We are not going anywhere, and we will be together for a long time.”

According to Okunbor, while Shell would be divesting its onshore assets to a consortium of four companies, it is still fully focused on deepwater operations, where it has a technological and financial edge.

The company, which has deep investments in the country, is currently spending $5 billion on a single deep offshore project.

The Shell MD speaking on the sidelines of #NES30 added that such investments only go to show the company’s commitment to the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

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Naira depreciates by 6.8% against dollar at official market

The Naira on Tuesday depreciated at the official market, trading at N1,658.97 to the dollar.

Data from the official trading platform of the FMDQ Exchange revealed that the Naira lost N106.05.

This represents a 6.82 per cent loss when compared to the previous trading date on Monday when it exchanged at N1,552.92 to a dollar.

Also, the total daily turnover reduced to 217.86 million dollars on Tuesday down from 343.71 million dollars recorded on Monday.

At the Investor’s and Exporter’s (I&E) window, the Naira traded between N1,670.50 and N1,556.29 against the dollar.

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Keyamo urges airlines to serve local dishes to passengers

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has requested airline operators to serve passengers Nigerian dishes. Keyamo said this while receiving the delegation of the Lufthansa Group in his office yesterday in Abuja.

The minister, who commended Lufthansa for their services in the aviation industry over the years, equally mandated all aircraft leaving or coming to Nigeria to ensure they treat Nigerians well on board their flights.

He said the essence of requesting local dishes during outbound flights is to promote Nigeria’s cultural heritage, and economic development, and encourage local caterers.

Keyamo appealed to foreign airlines to ensure all aircraft coming to Nigeria are in good shape and decried the level at which some foreign airlines lift Nigerian passengers with outdated aircraft while using the most modern ones in other countries.

Keyamo informed the Lufthansa Group that the Nigerian government has upgraded Muhammadu Buhari Airport Maiduguri to an international airport and urged them to utilise this opportunity to harness the huge market awaiting all airlines when the airport commences operations on January 1, 2025.

Rene Koinzack, Senior Director Sales, Southern and East Africa, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the aviation minister for the uncommon transformation at the airports.

He said the Nigeria Immigration Service has been doing excellently well at the airport and promised to ensure all passengers have value for their money.

Rene said the essence of the meeting was to thank the minister for the ease of doing business in Nigeria and further strengthen the partnership between Nigeria and the Lufthansa Group.

He stated that going forward, Lufthansa would serve Nigerian dishes to Nigerian passengers on board Lufthansa, maintaining that the airline will continue to support the growth of Nigeria’s aviation and her economy.

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No new taxes, FIRS reassures amid reforms

The Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Zacch Adedeji, has allayed the fears of many Nigerians regarding a possible new tax regime in light of proposed tax reforms.

Speaking during an interactive session with the Senate Committee on Finance in Abuja, he said that the reform legislation would not introduce new taxes or raise existing rates.

Adedeji stated, “The tax reform will not add any new taxes or increase the rates of current ones; instead, it aims to reduce the overall number of taxes that Nigerians pay.”

He further clarified that no agencies would be merged as part of this process, ensuring that no jobs would be lost.

The primary goal of the tax reform, according to Adedeji, is to enhance the simplicity and efficiency of tax administration in Nigeria.

He assured that the existing tax policies initiated by President Bola Tinubu focus on taxing prosperity rather than poverty, stressing returns on investments rather than the investments themselves.

Regarding the executive bills submitted to the National Assembly, Adedeji outlined four key proposals: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (Amendment) Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill.

He noted that, if passed, these bills would streamline multiple tax laws, modernise tax administration, promote efficiency, and align with international standards, all while expanding Nigeria’s tax base.

When questioned about the proposed name change from FIRS to Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Adedeji explained that the current title does not accurately reflect the agency’s comprehensive services, particularly in regard to Value Added Tax (VAT), where 85% of collections are allocated to states and only 15% to the federal government.

Senator Sani Musa, Chairman of the Finance Committee, highlighted the importance of the session for gaining insights into the aims of the tax reform bills.

He acknowledged that tax reforms are central to the government’s agenda and require input from various stakeholders.
He praised Adedeji for meeting revenue targets for the fiscal year while encouraging him to exceed those goals.

Other committee members, including Senators Seriake Dickson, Osita Isunazo, and Ahmed Wadada, also commended the FIRS for its efforts, particularly in boosting non-oil revenue generation.

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Nigeria’s foreign reserves rise 12.74 % to $39.12b

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, has said that Nigeria’s reserves have risen to $39.12 billion as of October 11, 2024.

The CBN governor said this translates to about a 12.74 percent increase from $34.70 billion at the end of June 2024.

Cardoso said the growth was driven largely by foreign capital inflows, receipts from crude oil-related taxes, and third-party contributions while also outlining the apex bank’s plans to address the spiralling inflation in the country.

This was as he said the bank’s recapitalization policy has prompted banks to strengthen their financial positions, a process expected to result in a more robust and resilient banking sector by March 2026.

The exercise, Cardoso said, is expected to support the realisation of a US$1 trillion economy by 2030.

He said this while addressing the House of Representatives Committee on Banking on policy measures and strategies to address domestic macroeconomic challenges.

On the macroeconomic performance in 2024, he said projections indicate a growth rate of 3.2 percent and 3.3 percent for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

He added that Nigeria is projected to maintain a more robust 4.3 percent growth rate.

Cardoso said the non-oil sector maintained strong performance, contributing 94.30 percent to GDP with a steady 2.80 percent growth rate.

He added that the oil sector’s growth rate has almost doubled to 10.15 percent in Q2 2024 from 5.70 percent in Q1 2024, due mainly to improved security surveillance, which resulted in increased production of crude oil and natural gas.

He said the services sector continues to be the primary economic driver, contributing 58.76 percent to GDP with a robust growth rate of 3.79 percent.

Similarly, he said the industrial sector has shown remarkable improvement, with its growth rate surging to 3.53 percent from 0.31 percent.

He pointed out that the contribution of agriculture to total GDP also increased. In addition, the growth rate of the sector rose to 1.41 percent from a negative territory of -0.90 percent, indicating a substantial turnaround in productivity.

He also said the foreign exchange reserves have grown significantly, with remittance flows currently representing 9.4 percent of total external reserves.

In Q2 2024, we maintained a current account surplus and saw remarkable improvements in our trade balance, he said.

Cardoso said the current external reserve position can finance over 12 months of imports of goods and services, or 15 months of goods only.

This is substantially higher than the prescribed international benchmark of 3.0 months, reflecting a robust buffer against external shocks, he said.

He said inflation trended upward, driven largely by high food prices, the cost of energy, and legacy infrastructural challenges, but it commenced deceleration from 34.19 percent in June 2024 to 33.40 percent in July 2024.

He said the moderation in inflation became more pronounced in August 2024, as headline inflation further eased to 32.15 percent.

This, he said, was largely attributed to monetary policy measures taken by the bank.

With aggressive monetary policy tightening coupled with robust monetary-fiscal policy coordination, inflation is expected to further trend downward in the near-to-medium term, Cardoso said.

To combat inflation, he said they had fully reverted to an orthodox monetary policy approach and implemented a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures.

These include raising the policy rate by 850 basis points to 27.25 percent, increasing cash reserve ratios, and normalising open market operations as our primary liquidity management tool.

He said, “In addition, we have adopted an inflation-targeting (IT) monetary policy framework as part of the bank’s Enterprise Strategy (2024-2028).

“The IT framework, widely adopted across various global economies, is renowned for its effectiveness in combating persistent inflation.

“These integrated measures are aimed at stabilising prices, optimising liquidity management, and engendering an effective monetary policy framework.

“Regarding the foreign exchange market, the bank implemented various reforms, including a unification strategy, which streamlined various exchange rate windows into a single model, adopting the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ approach to enhance FX liquidity and financial market stability.

“This move was aimed at fostering transparency, reducing market distortions, and enhancing the efficiency of foreign exchange allocations.

“This consolidation involved the implementation of new operational guidelines, which included removing the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOS) quote cap.

“Additionally, the bank resumed the sales of FX at the NAFEM and Bureau De Change (BDC) segments, bolstered by an improved supply from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).”

On banking supervision, he said the CBN has taken decisive actions to ensure the safety, soundness, and resilience of the banking industry.

“One of the key measures includes the recapitalization of the banking sector by raising the minimum capital base to support the $1 trillion economy envisioned by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) by 2030,” he said.

“Banks are required to meet these new thresholds by March 31, 2026, with several options available for reaching these targets.

“These options include issuing new equities, engaging in mergers and acquisitions, or adjusting their operational licences. The bank also revoked the licence of Heritage Bank, facilitated the successful merger of Unity Bank and Providus Bank, revised cybersecurity rules for banks and PSPs, suspended processing fees on cash deposits, and enhanced AML/CFT supervision, amongst others.”

On monetary and fiscal policy coordination, he said they had strengthened collaboration during the period under review.

He added, “In this regard, several joint committees have been instituted to build synergy and to provide platforms for key stakeholders’ engagements to explore ways through which monetary policy implementation and fiscal operations can be conducted in a mutually reinforcing manner.

“Overall, our policy measures reflect a holistic approach to addressing various challenges in the economy. While some measures have immediate effects, others are designed to bring about long-term structural changes. Our ultimate goal is to create a more stable, resilient, and efficient monetary and financial system that can better serve the Nigerian economy while adhering to global best practices,” Cardoso said.

The bank’s numerous policy initiatives are yielding significant results across various sectors of the economy.

“In the foreign exchange market, we have achieved increased transparency and improved overall supply. By allowing the foreign exchange rate to be determined by market demand and supply, the CBN has reduced arbitrage and speculative activities and eliminated the front-loading of FX demand.

“These policy measures have effectively narrowed the exchange rate disparities between the NAFEM and BDC segments, which have largely led to the convergence of FX rates. Improved transparency in the market has restored market confidence leading to increased capital inflows, which enabled the CBN to clear existing FX backlogs.

“The settlement of all legitimate backlogs of outstanding FX obligations by the bank has significantly improved Nigeria’s credibility and ratings across the global financial market, helping to boost investor confidence and enhanced liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

“With improved investor confidence, foreign investments have increased as evidenced by a significant rise in capital importation by 65.56 percent to $6.49 billion between January and July 2024, compared to $3.92 billion in the corresponding period of 2023.

“Collectively, these actions have contributed significantly to the stability of the financial system. While inflation remains a major concern, we are not relenting in ensuring that requisite measures are taken.

“Headline inflation slightly increased from 32.15 percent in August to 32.70 percent in September 2024. The MPC further tightened the policy rate in its September meeting in anticipation of an uptick in inflation due to the upward adjustment of the petroleum pump price.

“On a positive note, there was a moderation in core inflation from 27.58 percent to 27.43 percent over the same period. We therefore expect the year to end with significant moderation in inflation as our policy measures permeate the real economy,” he said.

The CBN Governor also said the capital market has responded positively to their policies, with the All-Share Index and market capitalization sustaining positive gains, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

“In general, Nigeria’s international standing has improved, with rating agencies upgrading our sovereign credit ratings.

“In the banking sector, our policies have resulted in improved market oversight and operational efficiency. Key financial soundness indicators show a robust capital adequacy ratio and improved liquidity ratio, amongst others.

“In addition, the bank’s recapitalization policy has prompted banks to strengthen their financial positions, a process expected to result in a more robust and resilient banking sector by March 2026.

“The exercise is expected to support the realisation of the $1 trillion economy by 2030.

“Amidst the identified challenges, the bank’s sustained reforms and strategic interventions have produced encouraging outcomes in diverse areas of our financial landscape and the broader economy.

*Overall, the banking industry remains sound, safe, and resilient, with improvements in liquidity and asset quality,” he said.

On the outlook for the economy, Cardoso said he was confident as the country expects continued positive growth, especially in the non-oil, oil, and industrial sectors.

“However, we remain cautious about potential global economic disruptions and domestic challenges.

“We project the services sector to remain the primary economic driver, while the industrial sector is expected to continue its recovery.

“Agricultural growth is anticipated to improve, supported by the harvest season and government initiatives.

“The oil sector is also expected to maintain positive growth, assuming no significant disruptions.

“Inflation remains a pressing concern, but there are reasons for optimistic outlook. Inflation has shown gradual moderation, indicating that the Bank’s monetary policy measures are becoming effective.

“We anticipate steady moderation of inflationary pressures in the last quarter of 2024, supported by our monetary policy measures and the Federal Government’s recent initiatives, such as tax incentives on businesses in the economy.

“The Naira exchange rate has shown some recent improvement as indicated by relative stability.

“We must acknowledge key risks, including global economic uncertainties, security challenges, potential oil price volatility, decline. With your support and the Central Bank’s steadfast dedication, I am confident we can pave the way for a more prosperous Nigeria,” he said.

On the macroeconomic performance in 2024, he said although positive, these estimates remain below historical averages, suggesting moderate rather than robust expansion.

“However, we must remain vigilant as the ongoing geopolitical tension such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Middle East crisis, lingering supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures continue to pose significant risks.

“In the crude oil market, we have observed a decline in prices during the third quarter of 2024, primarily driven by increased supply and revised global demand projections.

“Turning to domestic developments, I am pleased to report that our economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. In the second quarter of 2024, the economy grew by 3.19%, up from 2.51% in the corresponding period of last year, driven largely by the non-oil sector.

“The Services sector continues to be the primary economic driver, contributing 58.76 per cent to GDP with a robust growth rate of 3.79 per cent. Similarly, the Industrial sector has shown remarkable improvement, with its growth rate surging to 3.53 per cent from 0.31 per cent. The contribution of agriculture to total GDP also increased. In addition, the growth rate of the sector rose to 1.41 per cent, from a negative territory of -0.90 per cent, indicating a substantial turnaround in productivity.

“Importantly, the non-oil sector maintained strong performance, contributing 94.30% to GDP with a steady 2.80% growth rate. The oil sector’s growth rate has almost doubled to 10.15 per cent in Q2, 2024 from 5.70 per cent in Q1, 2024, due mainly to improved security surveillance which resulted in increased production of crude oil and natural gas.

“On the fiscal front, the deficit-to-GDP ratio stood at 4.1 per cent for the first half of 2024, while consolidated public debt was 51.2 per cent at end-March 2024. Although total debt stock exceeds the self-imposed 40.0 per cent national threshold, it remains well within the international benchmark, indicating that our debt levels remain within manageable limits, although requiring attention.

“In the foreign exchange market, we have adopted key policy measures leading to improved efficiency in the market. In particular, Diaspora remittances through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOS) have risen considerably by 36.61 per cent to US$552.94 million in July 2024, from US$404.75 million in May 2024,” he said.

He said they have embarked upon various initiatives to improve the remittance ecosystem.

Some of these initiatives include the Expansion of IMTOS, strengthening compliance and improving transparency in the sector, finalising the modalities for non-resident accounts with fewer requirements, following successful models in countries like India and Pakistan, and automating the reporting process for IMTOS through the Financial Institutions Foreign Exchange Reporting System (FIFX) platform to foster transparency and efficiency.

He said these initiatives are part of a broader effort to enhance remittance inflows and strengthen the Nigerian economy.

“As a result, remittance inflows which averaged $285 million per month in 2023 improved significantly as we achieved an impressive $585 million by August 2024. This remarkable growth stands as a testament to the hard work and dedication of everyone involved. The Bank remains focused on policies that safeguard the value of the naira and foster price stability

“Thus, remittances have contributed to improving the country’s balance of payments, resolving debt issues, and fostering exchange rate stability. These inflows are expected to significantly improve by the end of the year given the positive trajectory.

“ In addition, the spread between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau de Change (BDC) rates has narrowed significantly from N317.91 in January 2024 to N93.47 in September 2024, reflecting fundamental price discovery, enhanced market efficiency, and reduced arbitrage opportunities,” he said.

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