Bismarck Rewane, the Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, has forecasted that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 3.5 percent by 2026, bringing the nation’s gross domestic product close to $400 billion.

He shared this information during the Access Bank Customer Forum held in Lagos on Thursday.

 “The Nigerian economy will grow at 3.5 per cent (approximately $400bn). Nigeria is on track to becoming the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa,” Rewane said.

He mentioned that the nation’s foreign exchange auction system would improve in efficiency, with unrestricted foreign reserves expected to hit $20 billion.

“There will be an efficient forex auction system, and unencumbered foreign reserves will hit $20bn,” he noted.

Rewane forecasted that inflation would fall to 22 percent by 2026, anticipating a yearly decrease in the monetary policy rate to 20 percent. This reduction is expected to result in a drop in the amount of non-performing loans within the banking sector.

“We will see inflation drop to 22 per cent, and the MPR is likely to come down to 20 per cent, which will reduce bad loans,” he explained.

Even with these encouraging developments, Rewane cautioned that the naira is expected to exchange at N1,550 per dollar in the black market, highlighting intervention funds, remittances from abroad, and exchange rate regulations as crucial elements influencing the currency’s value.

Rewane attributed these enhancements to intervention funds, remittances from the diaspora, and policies aimed at adjusting the exchange rate.

“These gains are driven by intervention funds, remittances, and adjustments to exchange rate policies,” he noted.

He stated that total factor productivity is projected to grow to 2.6 percent by 2026, an increase from 2.4 percent in 2024, and that the nation’s trade balance is anticipated to reach $9.3 billion, up from $8.42 billion.

“Total factor productivity will increase to 2.6 per cent, and our trade balance will grow to $9.3bn,” he stated.

Rewane forecasted that petrol prices would settle at N900 per litre, supported by a reliable supply ensured by production from the Dangote refinery and modular refineries.

“We expect petrol to stabilise at N900 per litre due to increased production from Dangote refinery and modular refineries,” he said.

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He also estimated that the stock market capitalization could increase to N58 trillion, following the inclusion of major companies like Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

Regarding commodity prices, Rewane forecasted that a crate of tomatoes would be priced at N20,000, a bag of rice would cost N75,000, and a bag of beans would hit N110,000 by 2026.

The head of FDC highlighted that inflation continues to be a significant obstacle for Nigerian businesses, impacting their profit margins.

Additionally, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy mentioned that Nigeria’s foreign reserves have experienced a net inflow of approximately $2.35 billion into the Central Bank.

“There has been a net inflow in the first seven months of this year of about $2.35bn every month,” Edun stated, adding that the increase had played a key role in stabilising the naira in the forex market.

“We also have foreign exchange liquidity. The gross reserves are up,” the minister continued.

He attributed the growth to the government’s efforts, saying, “On the fiscal side as well, government revenues are growing.”

Edun emphasized that the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio was at 10%, with revenue to GDP at 15%, and urged increased investment in infrastructure and social safety nets to improve these low figures.

Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, voiced concerns about the current economic outlook, comparing it to the more optimistic projections made by Bismarck Rewane.

“Our projection is slow, and I do not pray that Bismarck’s projection comes to pass,” Oyedele said.

He emphasized the challenges of divestment, inadequate education, and increasing unemployment, pointing out that the Nigerian currency had depreciated in value by ten times more than the Kenyan shilling.

He emphasized the importance of making decisions based on data.

“We must leverage data and evidence to ensure it serves our interests,” he stated.

Oyedele mentioned that the Federal Government aims to lower corporate income tax in the upcoming years. He also noted that the government seeks to lessen the tax burden on businesses while focusing on improving collection efficiency to boost revenue.

An analysis of Nigeria’s Multidimensional poverty index by ActionAid Nigeria has revealed that about 65 percent of poor people, that is 86 million people live in the northern part of the country, while 36 percent, nearly 47 million people live in the South.

The analysis indicated the poorest states in the country to include Sokoto, Bayelsa, Jigawa, Kebbi, Gombe, and Yobe, but cannot determine which of these states is the poorest.

The organisation disclosed this at the launch of its report on Austerity Measure, poverty and Gender Inequality in Nigeria in Abuja, saying Nigeria’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for 2022 found that 63% of the population, amounting to approximately 133mn Nigerians, are multidimensionally poor.

Analysing the report, the Country Director of ActionAid Andrew Mamedu noted that Poverty and inequality do not just happen; they result from economic, social, and political decisions made by the state and citizens.

He said “The critical policy decisions reflected in the key macroeconomic indicators show the rate and trend of poverty and inequality. Extant Nigerian negative indicators on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, interest rate, unemployment, debts, and deficits, among others, can only lead to one direction, increased poverty.”

Mamedu further stated that the underlying cause of the current spate of poverty is rooted in the heavy burden of austerity measures, imposed as part of broader macroeconomic policies.

He disclosed that based on their research, from 2010 to 2020, Nigeria’s debt stock ballooned by over 300%, reaching a staggering ₦31 trillion by the end of 2020​ , and as of March 31st, 2024, debt stock stands at USD 91,463.99, an equivalent of N121, 670.49. trillion consuming 74% of government revenue and leaving little for vital sectors such as education, healthcare, and social protection​.

He pointed out that keeping large numbers of people excluded from access to economic resources, employment, healthcare, adequate food, clean water and sanitation, education, skills, and technology, will result in a reduction of future productive human potential.

He stressed that well-designed and sustained investments in areas such as maternal and child health, education, and social protection would yield significant dividends for society.

“Conversely, no society can expect to achieve sustained economic and social progress while significant numbers of its population often disproportionately women and girls – are poorly nourished, in poor health, and lack the education and/or skills needed for their own and their families’ development,” he stated

The Minister of Budget and National Planning Atiku Bagudu who was represented by the Director of Microeconomic Philip Okwonkwo wondered if poverty and inequality could be tackled at the same time.

He maintained that the issue of poverty is a global phenomenon as it is not unique to Nigeria and Africa alone and harped on the need for stakeholders to collaborate to empower the poor people in society.

Officials of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on Wednesday night made an attempt to arrest the former governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, at the Kogi State Governor’s lodge in the Asokoro District in the Federal Capital Territory.

However, there was some resistance by security operatives at the governor’s lodge as gunshots rented the air during the altercation.

The entire area has been cordoned off and movements around that area have also been restricted to only operatives of the EFCC and other security agencies stationed there.

Unconfirmed reports say the former governor has now left the governor’s lodge in the company of the incumbent Kogi State governor, Ahmed Ododo.

Also, normalcy seem to have returned around the Kogi State governor’s lodge after the attempt by the operatives to arrest Bello.

This is the latest on what has turned out to be a roller coaster of events surrounding Yahaya Bello, who has been on the wanted list of the EFCC for having allegedly laundered N80.2 billion.

After months of being declared wanted by the EFCC, a statement by the Director of Yahaya Bello Media Office, Ohiare Michael, on Wednesday, said the former governor honoured EFCC invitation “after due consultations with his family, legal team and political allies”.

But in a swift reaction to the statement by Bello’s media team, the EFCC said the former governor was not in its custody and remains wanted.

EFCC spokesman Dele Oyewale said the ex-governor remains wanted “for alleged N80.2 billion money laundering charges”.

“Media reports today that a former Governor of Kogi State, Mr. Yahaya Bello is in the holding facility of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, is incorrect. The Commission wishes to state that Bello is not in its custody.

“Bello, already declared wanted by the Commission for alleged N80.2billion money laundering charges, remains wanted with a subsisting warrant for his arrest,” Oyewale said in a statement.

Following up with his earlier statement, Ohiare Michael released another statement maintaining that Bello honoured the invitation of the anti-graft agency but was asked to leave by officials without interrogation.

According to him, the former governor was accompanied to the EFCC office by his successor, Usman Ododo.

“We reiterated the former Governor’s great respect for the rule of law and constituted authority, and stressed that, all the while, he only sought the enforcement of his fundamental rights in order to ensure due process.

“The EFCC did not, however, interrogate him as officials told him he could leave. We don’t know what this means yet. As we write, HE Alhaji Yahaya Bello has left the EFCC office. He was accompanied there by the Governor of Kogi State, HE Alhaji Ahmed Usman Ododo,” the statement read in part.

Bello was sued by the EFCC on a 19-count charge of alleged money laundering to the tune of ₦80bn.

However, Bello has consistently refused to honour EFCC’s invitations for questioning, and has consistently boycotted court trials.

His case was recently adjourned by Justice Emeka Nwite of the Federal High Court Abuja to September 25.

The U.S. State Department has launched an online passport renewal system that allows Americans to bypass the traditional mail-in paper process that often leads to delays.

The State Department announced on Wednesday that the digital system is now fully operational after several pilot tests.

It said the digital system is available to adult passport holders whose passports have expired in the last five years or will expire within the next year.

It is not available for the renewal of children’s passports, for first-time passport applicants for renewal applicants who live outside the United States or for expedited applications, the State Department added.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that “by offering this online alternative to the traditional paper application process, the Department is embracing digital transformation to offer the most efficient and convenient passport renewal experience possible.”

The department disclosed that it has estimates that around 5 million Americans annually will benefit from the new service, noting that in 2023 it processed 24 million passports, 40% of which were renewals.

The introduction of the online platform comes as the State Department continues to recover from pandemic-related staffing shortages that severely delayed passport processing times.

The new online system enables applicants to skip the current process, which requires them to print out and send paper applications, photos and a check by mail, and submit their documents, photos, and payment through a secure website, www.Travel.State.Gov/renewonline.

The existing passport processing fees, which are currently $130 for a regular renewal, will remain unchanged.

Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Rena Bitter, whose bureau oversees passport processing, said the department hopes to expand the programme by including children’s renewals, second passports, and services for Americans living overseas.

“This is not going to be the last thing that we do,” Bitter told reporters. “We want to see how this goes and then we’ll start looking at ways to continue to make this service available to more American citizens in the coming months and years.”

The Nigerian Geological Survey Agency (NGSA) has announced that the earth tremors experienced in the Federal Capital Territory are not a cause for alarm.

NGSA’s Director-General, Olusegun Ige, disclosed in a statement that it has monitored the tremors and found them to be low and did not pose any threat to the environment.

NGSA’s statement comes after reports of earth tremors in Abuja, which had caused concern among residents of Maitama, Katampe, Mpape, and surrounding areas.

Earth tremors, a minor or brief movement of the Earth’s surface, triggered by the same forces responsible for earthquakes, had been previously reported in the capital in September 2018, which was said to occur at magnitude 3.2 around Mpape.

But NGSA said it has monitored the tremors and found them to be low and not a threat to the environment, adding that it team visited the affected areas for on-the-spot assessments.

NGSA reported that the tremors were a result of accumulated stress along identified faults and released seismic energy.

“The Monitoring Station (NGSA-5) at Katampe has been capturing several significant ground motions with high moment magnitudes (Mw) in the past five days, beginning September 13, 2024, and continuing to date,” NGSA said.

“Only one mild event was recorded on September 13th. Six of these events were captured on the 14th of September, while over 21 events were captured on the 15th with higher intensities. More than twenty events were recorded on the 16th of September. The intensity and frequency of the tremor appear to increase from the 13th to the 16th September. There are a few weak events recorded today, 17th September.

“Preliminary analysis of the waveforms showed that the sources of the ground motions are less than 5 km away from the monitoring station.”

According to the accounts of residents of the affected areas, observations by the NGSA team, and findings from previous interpretations of airborne geophysical data over the area and adjoining areas, the following conclusions were reached:

• The tremors are a result of accumulated stress along the identified faults and released seismic energy, which may have travelled through associated fractures to areas where the tremors were felt around the FCT.
• There are multiple epicentres associated with the recent tremor. Most of the epicentres are located northeast of the NGSA-5 Seismic Station around Mpape axis, while a few are located southwest of the Station around Katampe axis.
• The intensities of the tremors are weak to light, ranging from III-IV on the Modified Mercalli Scale, and pose a very low-level threat, and
• The residents of Mpape, Katampe, Maitama, and other areas where the tremors were felt are advised not to panic as the tremors can be generally described as low. The Agency is keeping a close monitoring of the situation and will provide updates as may become necessary.

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, said that President Bola Tinubu has assented to the bill for the establishment of the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons.

Ribadu made this known at the Workshop on Gender Mainstreaming in Preventing the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Nigeria and the West African Sub-region on Tuesday in Abuja.

The workshop was organised by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW).

He was represented by the Director of External Affairs, Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), Amb. Ibrahim Babani.

The NSA said that the president’s assent to the bill was a major milestone in the government’s commitment to curbing the proliferation of illegal arms.

According to him, this legislative backing strengthens the centre’s mandate and paves the way for more coordinated and decisive action.

Ribadu also stressed the need for gender mainstreaming in preventing the proliferation of small arms and light weapons in the country.

He said that the workshop was anchored in key international frameworks, including United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325.

According to him, the resolution stresses the critical need to protect women from the impacts of conflict while also ensuring their full participation in peacebuilding and security initiatives.

“Moreover, the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons underscores the collective responsibility of our region in curbing the spread of these dangerous weapons, which disproportionately affect women and children in conflict zones.

“The importance of gender mainstreaming in preventing the proliferation of SALW cannot be overstated, as it strengthens our strategies and ensures that our approach to security is inclusive and sustainable,” he said.

Ribadu commended the centre for its efforts towards addressing the proliferation of small arms and light weapons in Nigeria.

In his opening remarks, the National Coordinator of NCCSALW, retired DIG Johnson Kokumo, said the centre has, in recent times, made some significant achievements in the fight against the illegal proliferation of small arms and light weapons.

Kokumo said the centre had on July 1 retrieved a substantial cache of illegal arms from the Nigeria Customs Service and subsequently arrested 10 suspects involved in the illicit importation.

He said the suspects were currently being prosecuted by the NCCSALW for the illegal importation into Nigeria of prohibited 544 firearms and 112,500 rounds of cartridges, contrary to Section 3 (6) of the Miscellaneous Offences Act Cap M17 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004, among other offences.

This, according to him, underscores the centre’s commitment to not only intercepting arms but also ensuring that those responsible for these acts face the full weight of the law.

“In addition to the above, the National Centre has retrieved a total of 3,383 decommissioned, unserviceable, obsolete, and illicit small arms and light weapons, and 26,749 various calibres of ammunition from the arms-bearing agencies of government.

“Later in this quarter, NCCSALW will be conducting an Arms Destruction Exercise, which is a critical step in ensuring that recovered arms are permanently removed from circulation,” he said.

Kokumo said the control of small arms and light weapons proliferation was not only a national concern but also a matter of international importance.

He said that the illegal flow of small arms and light weapons had devastating consequences, fuelling violence, instability, and insecurity in various parts of the world.

He said that gender mainstreaming in SALW control was not only a moral imperative but also a strategic move, considering the grave impact of armed conflict on women and children.

This, he said, highlighted the need for a gender-sensitive approach to disarmament and security policies.

“This workshop is a significant step in ensuring that gender perspectives are integrated into national and regional strategies for Small Arms and Light Weapons control,” he said.