Experts led by Heads of State and Government at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly have warned that malaria may afflict 137.2 million more people, and kill up to 337,000 persons by 2029 if critical funding is not received.
According to new modelling conducted by the Malaria Atlas Project, in the event of a cut in resources at the next Global Fund replenishment, and any changes in the allocation of resources to malaria, there could be 137.2 million additional malaria cases and up to 337,000 additional deaths from 2027 to 2029.
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is one of the primary sources of funding for the control and elimination of all three diseases.
Funded largely by governments, it pools the world’s resources to fight AIDS, TB and malaria, raising and investing money in three-year cycles known as Replenishments.
The new models show that if there is a flat-lining of malaria resources (with the Global Fund Replenishment again achieving approximately $15.6 billion in total and allocations across the three diseases remaining on par with the current cycle), the world could see an additional 112 million malaria cases and up to 280,700 additional deaths across the three-year period, with upsurges and outbreaks happening right across the continent of Africa.
The Roll Back Malaria Partnership, in a statement, said current funding levels would be inadequate to tackle the disease because of multiple challenges converging: Insecticide and anti-malarial drug resistance are on the rise, reducing the effectiveness of existing malaria interventions. There are now highly effective new tools, such as dual-insecticide mosquito nets, that address resistance but the costs to roll out these interventions are higher. Climate change and humanitarian crises are also coinciding with deadly effect and leave those affected even worse off and more vulnerable to malaria.
The situation will be even worse if the total Global Fund Replenishment sees a cut to resources and takes funding away from malaria.
The new projections were raised by President Umaro Sissocco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau at a fireside chat – ‘Confronting the Malaria Perfect Storm, convened by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance. They expressed concerns that malaria would quickly resurge, if appropriate action is not taken in this Replenishment cycle.
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the RBM Partnership to End Malaria, Dr. Michael Charles, said: “The evidence is clear that there is significant risk of malaria epidemics if funding isn’t increased and high-burden areas are unable to deliver critical malaria prevention services. Unlike Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) and TB, malaria is concentrated in lower income countries, particularly across Africa, so often these countries have the least ability to afford the fight. Everyone, no matter where they live, has a right to health. Malaria is straining health systems and making it difficult for people in low income countries to fully enjoy their right to health.”
“Allocating the funds from the Global Fund Replenishment is complex, as of course all three diseases urgently need attention. But it is crucial that malaria receives an increase in its funding from the Global Fund, if we are to avoid a wide-scale resurgence. If this doesn’t happen, we can expect cases to spike and increased mortality.
We already know this will impact women and young children hardest, as they are disproportionately affected by the disease. It will also push more people into poverty and overwhelm already fragile health systems, with economic consequences that will ripple across the world. We simply cannot afford to let this happen. The world has a duty to ensure our most vulnerable populations are not further disadvantaged, and to do this, we need to ensure the right funding is in place, starting with the global fund replenishment.”
