Nigeria has been ranked among the African countries that have experienced the most substantial decline in governance performance since 2014 over the past decade, according to the 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) on Wednesday.
IIAG, which tracks governance performance across 54 African countries, shows that from 2014 to 2023, Nigeria’s overall governance score dropped by three ranks, with the country now positioned 33rd out of 54 African nations.
The most significant decline for Africa’s most populated country was in the “Security & Safety” sub-category, where the country’s score fell by 11 points over the decade.
This places Nigeria among the bottom five nations in Africa for security and safety in 2023. A notable indicator within this category is the “Absence of Armed Conflict,” where Nigeria’s score dropped by 49.8 points, making it the fifth most deteriorated country in this measure.
Nigeria’s ongoing violence, insurgencies, and internal conflicts are the primary factors contributing to the country’s rapid decline in security, as the country has faced persistent challenges with terrorism, banditry, and communal clashes, affecting its governance performance in this critical area.
In addition to security, the report also noted that Nigeria has recorded declines in 10 out of 16 governance sub-categories.
Among the areas hit hardest are “Participation, Rights & Inclusion” and “Accountability & Transparency,” both of which reflect challenges in ensuring citizen participation and holding public officials accountable.
The IIAG report reads, ” At Overall Governance level, Nigeria ranks 33rd in 2023 withn a score of 45.7, falling by three ranks, and follows a trend of increasing deterioration.
“At sub-category level, Nigeria reports declines in 10 out of 16 sub-categories, five of which larger than -5.0 points.
“The largest is Security & Safety, declining by -11.0 points, thus placing Nigeria in the bottom 10 most declined countries over the decade and in the bottom five lowest scoring countries in 2023 for this sub-category.
“At indicator level, Nigeria reported concerning declines within Absence of Armed Conflict, declining by -49.8 points, making Nigeria the fifth most declined country within this indicator and the lowest ranked country in 2023 (54th).”
Despite these setbacks, the report also points out some positive trends across the continent, with 13 other countries having made progress in Overall Governance.
They include the Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, and Zambia.
According to the IIAG report, these countries account for more than one-fifth (20.5%) of the continent’s population, and progress is accelerating in the second half of the period.
Like Nigeria, nations such as Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, and Uganda have also seen their governance deteriorate, particularly in the areas of security and rule of law.
“The 2024 IIAG paints a picture of stagnation in Africa’s Overall Governance performance between 2014 and 2023. With a score of 49.3 in 2023, progress has been limited to +1.0 with almost no change from 2018 and coming to a complete stop in 2022,” the report reads.
“Over the decade, 33 countries, hosting just over half (52.1%) of the continent’s population, have made progress in Overall Governance. For 13 of them – Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon,
Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, Zambia – hosting over 1/5th (20.5%) of the continent’s population, progress is even accelerating over the second half of the period.
“But for the remaining 21 countries, hosting 47.9% of the population, the Overall Governance level is worse in 2023 than in 2014. For 11 of those – Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda – home to almost 1/3 (29.3%) of the population, deterioration is even worsening over the second part of the decade.
“This concerning overall trend is driven by the ongoing deterioration of the Security & Rule of Law dimension, which has been the most deteriorated category since 2014 (-1.6 points), as well as, to a lesser extent, by the irregular
trajectory of Participation, Rights & Inclusion, ending with a loss of -0.2 points between 2014 and 2023. Within these categories, deterioration is worst in both Security & Safety and in Participation, with a loss of -5.0 and -4.5 points, respectively, while Rights (-2.8) and Accountability & Transparency (-1.4) also decline, but to a lesser extent.
“Meanwhile, Human Development (+2.9) and Foundations for Economic Opportunity (+2.8) improved over the decade under review, but progress has ultimately slowed from 2019. This slowing improvement trend applies to all underlying sub-categories of these two categories since 2019, with the exception of Health, which still managed to accelerate progress, and Social Protection & Welfare, which remained unchanged.”
The 13 countries with increasing improvement are Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, and Zambia
Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, and Uganda are among the 11 countries whose conditions are deteriorating.
The 11 countries with warning signs include Algeria, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe.
The nine countries with slowing improvement are Angola, Benin, Djibouti, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritania, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania.
Cameroon, Comoros, DR Congo, Mali, Namibia, Niger, and South Africa are the seven countries with slowing deterioration, while the three countries with bouncing back are Burundi, Lesotho, and South Sudan.
