President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline immigration proposals — including a controversial mass deportation plan — could prove economically damaging, analysts say, with US sectors that rely heavily on foreign workers like agriculture and construction especially hard hit.

US authorities estimate that there are around 11 million unauthorized people living in the United States, the vast majority of whom come from Mexico.

Around 8.3 million unauthorized people were in the labor force in 2022, according to a recent estimate from the Pew Research Center. That was equivalent to just under five percent of the overall workforce.

“Today our cities are flooded with illegal aliens,” Trump said on the campaign trail earlier this year, adding: “Americans are being squeezed out of the labor force and their jobs are taken.”

The reality, however, is more complex; many of the sectors that could be the hardest-hit have long struggled to attract US workers.

“The construction and agriculture industries would lose at least one in eight workers, while in hospitality, about one in 14 workers would be deported due to their undocumented status,” the non-profit American Immigration Council (AIC) said in a recent report on Trump’s deportation plans.

The deportations would also impact “more than 30 percent” of plasterers, roofers, and painters, along with a quarter of housekeeping cleaners, according to the report.

– Economic impact –

A recent joint study by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Brookings Institution, and the Niskanen Center estimated that Trump’s immigration plans could curb US GDP growth in 2025 by as much as 0.4 percentage points.

The impact on growth would primarily come from the direct effect of having fewer foreign workers producing goods and services, with an additional, smaller decline in output coming from less consumer spending by those groups.

In such a scenario, the authors said, “legal immigration is slightly below where it was during the pre-pandemic Trump administration, while enforcement and deportation efforts reach levels not seen in recent decades.”

A total of 3.2 million people would be deported during Trump’s term under this projection, with net migration — arrivals minus departures — falling from 3.3 million in 2024 to negative 740,000 in 2025, boosted by a sharp rise in voluntary emigration.

In a more extreme scenario, which analysts say is highly unlikely, the impact on growth could be much more significant.

A recent Peterson Institute for International Economics report modelled the impact of expelling all 8.3 million unauthorized immigrant workers.

It predicted that economic growth by 2028 could be 7.4 percent beneath baseline estimates, “meaning no US net economic growth occurs over the second Trump term because of this policy alone.”

At the same time, US inflation would be 3.5 percentage points higher by 2026 than it would otherwise be, as employers raised wages to attract American workers.

But even in a less significant scenario, mass deportations could push up prices, analysts say.

Trump’s immigration plans “could lead to big price increases in certain sectors of the economy, but could also lead to inflation,” Michael Strain, AEI’s director of economic policy studies, told AFP.

But mass deportations’ aggregate effect on inflation would likely be small, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in an investor note, “with upward pressure in sectors like agriculture and construction partly offset by weaker demand in general and slower inflation in some other areas, such as housing.”

– Obstacles –

Most analysts expect legal, logistical and financial challenges will blunt the most extreme proposals — as they did during the first Trump administration — with the end result being that net migration eases modestly next year compared to pre-pandemic levels.

“We expect tighter policy to lower net immigration to 750k per year, moderately below the pre-pandemic average of 1 (million) per year,” economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in an investor note.

“We’re sceptical that the kind of deportations proposed on the campaign could occur,” Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote in a note to clients.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says one out of four individuals between ages 15 years and above would like to leave their communities permanently or at least temporarily.

The NBS said this in its General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-Panel) Wave 5  2023/2024 unveiled in Abuja on Thursday.

The report showed that more men aged 15 years and above wanted to leave their communities, representing 31. 2 per cent compared to women at 19.3 per cent.

It said that among age groups, 34.5 per cent of people between 20 and 30 years of age would like to migrate.

“This was followed by those between ages 15 and 18 at 26.9 per cent and those between ages 31 and 64 at 25 per cent.

“Among people ages 65 and above, only 6.5 per cent said that they would like to leave their communities.”

The report said that among those who would like to migrate, 35.3 per cent would like to move to Abuja and 26.6 per cent would like to relocate to another country.

The report revealed that those in the Southern zones predominantly reported that they would like to relocate to another country, while individuals in the Northern zones preferred to move to Abuja or another state.

The NBS said that nationally, 45.4 per cent of households had at least one former household member who had relocated within and outside the country.

According to the report, half of those former household members are females.

The report said that marriage was the main reason why former household members had relocated at 28.2 per cent, followed by those who had gone to live with relatives or friends at 21.2 per cent.

“This was followed by those who went to look for/start a new job or business at 14.6 per cent .

It showed that urban households were less likely to have a former household member who had migrated, with a reported share of 37 per cent compared to 49.3 per cent of rural area households.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the GHS-Panel is  Nigeria’s nationally representative longitudinal household survey which began in 2010 and had implemented five waves of the survey.

The panel nature of the data enables tracking household-level changes in critical areas of welfare, work, and socio-economic outcomes over time, yielding insights for policy. 

The Federal Government says it will collaborate with the World Bank to provide decent jobs directly or indirectly to no fewer than 10 million youths within the next five years.

Mr Ayodele Olawande, Minister of Youth Development, communicated this when he hosted the World Bank team lead by Mr Maheshwor Shrestha, World Bank Economist, on Thursday in Abuja.

Olawande said that the forum would enable him to update the team on the various activities and engagements of the ministry in the past months.

“The focus of the ministry has been to achieve the establishment of a strong coordinated mechanism for all youth intervention focused on economic inclusion and we want data to inform all we do.

”Provide decent jobs directly or indirectly for at least, 10 million youths within the next five years and ensure that every youth is proficient in at least, two income generating skills.

“Expand our credit support funds by 50 million dollars to reach more young people, including businesses led by going women, people with disabilities and young people in rural areas.’’

The minister said that the current reality showed that 60 million youths were in the labour bracket and an additional 5.5 million would join the labour market every year.

He said that almost 58 per cent of Nigeria’s informal workforce was young people.

“Despite these data, we see these opportunities for the development of the country if harnessed effectively,” he said.

Olawande said that the challenges hinged on deficient skills for job market, relevant vocational training and lack of access to capital and funds safety with infrastructural deficit.

In his speech, Shrestha said that no fewer than 60 million youths in Nigeria were underage at the moment.

According to him, it means that Nigeria needs to create enough opportunities for a huge pool of youths that are already there and who will be joining the way.

He said that every year, 5 and a half million would reach paid working age.

Shrestha said that only seven per cent of the youths were engaged in paid jobs.

“And even those are not permanent jobs; there are still informal jobs.

“So, if we look at overall, 93 per cent of the youths are working in an informal sector.’’

According to him, the bank is figuring out how to improve safety net support towards such people.

“What we are doing now is to think about how the framework applies at the state level.

“So, I think we are starting to work with the Governors’ Board of Secretaries to see how this approach applies at the state levels,” he said.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has commenced exporting refined petroleum products to nearby West African nations, signaling to traders that the refinery’s operations might soon disrupt regional fuel markets.

According to a Tuesday report by Bloomberg, citing data from Vortexa, Kpler, Precise Intelligence, a port report, and a ship-tracking platform, a tanker has transported a shipment of gasoline from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to waters near Togo, a neighboring West African country.

The report mentioned that the vessel CL Jane Austen recently loaded over 300,000 barrels at the refinery and headed westward.

It is worth noting that last month, Mustapha Abdul-Hamid, Chairman of Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority, revealed that Ghana is exploring the option of purchasing petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery. This move aims to reduce reliance on costlier imports from Europe, which currently cost the nation around $400 million monthly.

The head of the NPA in Ghana, speaking at the OTL Africa Downstream Oil Conference in Lagos, stated that sourcing imports from Nigeria instead of Europe would lower the cost of other goods and services by eliminating freight charges.

“If the refinery reaches 650,000bpd a day capacity, all that volume cannot be consumed by Nigeria alone, so instead of us importing as we do right now from Rotterdam, it will be much easier for us to import from Nigeria and I believe that will bring down our prices,” Hamid said.

In the same vein, The PUNCH reported exclusively two weeks ago that the refinery was prepared to start exporting fuel to South Africa, Angola, and Namibia.

The statement also mentioned that four additional African nations – Niger Republic, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic – have begun discussions with the refinery.

A reliable source, who shared this information exclusively with one of our reporters, revealed that the management of the refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is in the final stages of negotiations with these countries to begin fuel shipments.

“I can confirm to you that talks are actually at the advanced stage with Ghana, Angola, Namibia, and South Africa, while the initial discussion is coming up with Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic,” the source said.

The report also mentioned that the shipment of petroleum products is currently drifting near the coast of Lome, a well-known location for ship-to-ship transfers.

It remains unclear where the cargo of the CL Jane Austen will eventually be delivered.

While it is located off the coast of Togo, this area is frequently used for ship-to-ship transfers, suggesting the fuel could eventually be transported to another destination.

“While the shipment is tiny in the context of the global gasoline market, it signals the ramp-up of Dangote’s production and the potential to export significant volumes of gasoline beyond Nigeria, which could upend regional markets.”

The refinery sent its initial shipment of gasoline by sea to the commercial center of Lagos last month.

It is still uncertain if a significant portion of Dangote’s gasoline production will be exported.

In the previous month, the Federal Government lifted the state-owned oil company’s exclusive right to purchase fuel from the plant for domestic consumption, while still permitting the ongoing importation of fuel from Europe and the US, as per the regulatory framework.

The report states that a representative from Dangote did not reply to a request for comment.

The Naira on Monday depreciated at the official market trading at N1,690.37 against the dollar.

Data from the official trading platform of the FMDQ Exchange, revealed that the Naira lost N38.12.

This represents a 2.3 per cent loss when compared to the previous trading date on Friday, November 15th when it exchanged at N1,652.25 a dollar.

Also, the total daily turnover reduced to $173.14 million dollars on Monday down from $296.63 million dollars recorded on Friday.

At the Investor’s and Exporter’s (I&E) window, the Naira traded between N1,699.00 and N1,633.52 against the dollar.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has alerted Nigerians of the activities of
fraudsters purporting to be in receipt of award letters of contracts related to construction
works.

According to a statement by CBN’s Acting Director, Corporate Communications Department, Mrs Hakama Ali, the fraudsters also usually lay claims to procession of special financial interventions on behalf of the CBN.

She said that it was false, as such individuals were solely motivated by the desire to defraud unsuspecting Nigerians.

“Any such assertions are fraudulent and should be
disregarded.

“The CBN hereby reiterates that, in line with the focus of its current management, it has discontinued direct development interventions and special projects funding,” she said.

She further said that the apex bank had not authorised public notices for such interventions on social media platforms or any other news outlet.

“The CBN remains committed to its core mandate of ensuring monetary and price stability, and a sound and efficient financial system in Nigeria.

“We, therefore, encourage the public to remain vigilant and promptly report any suspicious
activities or publications to the relevant law enforcement agencies,” she said.