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How Buhari reversed Nigeria’s 16-year economic gains -World Bank

Between 2015 and 2022, Nigeria witnessed a reversal of economic gains, as recorded by Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua, and Goodluck Jonathan between 1999 and mid-2015.

The World Bank disclosed this in its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), themed, ‘Staying the course: Progress amid pressing challenges’. It painted a grim picture of how policy inconsistency and contracting the oil sector conspired to lower the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by about one-third between 2015 and 2022.

“Income gains from 2000-2014 were partially reversed from 2015. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies, the contracting oil sector and external shocks lowered GDP per capita by about one-third between 2015 and 2022, while comparator countries continued to prosper,” it explained.

The report noted that an unorthodox monetary and foreign exchange policy crisis contributed to the inflation surge witnessed during the period, saying the CBN maintained heavy-handed foreign exchange management and loose monetary policies, including monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and development finance interventions while parallel market exchange rate premium and inflation soared.

Also, during the Mohammadu Buhari era, the report said fiscal deficits widened and Ways and Means of financing by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) skyrocketed, forcing a rapid increase in debt pressures.

While the Bank acknowledged the economic and social hardship attributable to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, it stated that the policies are beginning to bear positive fruits.

It added: “Major policy reforms are starting to yield positive results. Despite the very large adjustments, GDP growth has been resilient and is being driven by services and slightly edged up in the first quarter of 2024, which is largely helped by stabilising oil output.”

It observed that the foreign exchange reforms have achieved a market-reflective exchange rate in the official market while the foreign reserve buffer is growing with the parallel exchange rate premium closed. It added that foreign exchange turnover has nearly doubled just as foreign reserves are almost $39 billion.

CBN’s renewed focus on achieving price stability, tightened monetary policy and improved transmission mechanisms anchored on market rates have excite the global financial institution.

While sacrificing an affordable lending rate, the CBN has increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by a cumulative 850 basis points since February 2024. It also substantially increased and standardised the cash reserve ratio and conducted large and market-priced open market operations (OMOs). The apex bank has also normalised standing facilities, made frantic efforts to halt new development finance loans and phased out ways and means of financing to redirect its attention to market-based debt instruments.

Whereas a revenue-driven fiscal consolidation is on course, the government fiscal deficit shrunk, thanks to contained expenditures and a surge in revenues, the report noticed.

Against popular belief that fuel subsidy claims the largest chunk of government revenues, the report has a contrary opinion. It revealed that the surge in revenues largely reflects the removal of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, which was even larger than the premium motor spirit (PMS) subsidy.

It highlighted that in 2022, the combined direct fiscal cost of foreign exchange and PMS subsidies reached a staggering N10.7 trillion which was 5.3 per cent of the GDP.

Noting the giant strides that have been made since June 2023, the World Bank believes there is still more job to be done going forward. It charged the Tinubu-led administration to maintain a unified, market-reflective exchange rate and implement a comprehensive, systematic framework for CBN foreign exchange interventions to provide clarity to market participants as to when and how CBN may buy or sell foreign exchange.

Focusing on transparently supporting market liquidity and price discovery is also crucial while measures to build liquidity in the NAFEM, including easing remaining restrictions, and channelling oil-related inflows to the market should be prioritised as well, it advised.

The report also stressed that efforts should be geared towards maintaining a market-reflective petrol price and ensuring that the gains from the removal of subsidy flow to the federation.

It urged the Federal Government to strengthen non-oil revenues, reform the value-added tax (VAT) regime, rationalise tax expenditures and improve tax administration by adopting an e-invoicing system while strengthening tax audits.

It also charged the government to increase the transparency of oil revenues, improve the reporting of oil revenues to the Federal Account and Allocation Committee (FAAC) and conduct an audit to reconcile what is owed by the NNPC Limited to the federation.

To be socially responsible, the report cautioned those in government to cut lavish lifestyles by reducing the cost of governance and wasteful expenditures such as the purchase of vehicles and external training while lowering the cost of collection of ministries, departments and agencies of government as well as government-owned enterprises.

Noting that macroeconomic stabilisation is crucial, it should be accompanied by more targeted and urgent support to poor and economically insecure households.
While acknowledging that inflation has started to wane with improved monetary policy, it remains high and sticky, saying the battle is far from over.

“Inflation has started to fall overall, but it is still very high, at 32.7 per cent year-on-year in September 2024. Inflation and slow growth have contributed to increased poverty along with other shocks, such as COVID-19, past economic missteps and the current necessary course corrections have contributed to an increase in the share of Nigerians living in poverty,” it stated.

While most Nigerians feel that the cash transfer programme of the Federal Government is shrouded in secrecy, the World Bank is seeking scale-up and fast-tracking of the programme.

It said: “Direct benefit transfers of N25,000 are being rolled out to 15 million recipients and their families (over 60 million Nigerians). As of October 8, 4.4 million households have received at least one tranche of payment and 0.8 million have received a second tranche. The authenticity of the individuals is being validated through the National Identification Number (NIN) or the Bank Verification Number (BVN) before making payments directly into recipient bank accounts.”

However, it observed that low coverage of NIN/BVN among the poor and economically insecure population has adversely impacted the pace of the rollout of the direct benefit transfers.

In the reckoning of the Bretton Woods institution, the minimum wage, which is now pegged at N70,000 may not impact most Nigerians saying only 4.1 per cent of the working population will benefit from the pay raise.

Indeed, statistics show that 44.0 per cent of Nigerians are in non-wage employment, 43.6 per cent are not employed or in subsistence farming, while 12.4 are in other forms of employment. However, within the 12.4 per cent, only 4.1 per cent of that would be affected by the new minimum wage law.

The World Bank insisted that the Federal Government should follow up the macroeconomic stabilisation with the creation of productive jobs, arguing that poverty-reducing labour market policies are needed urgently to harness the potential of Nigeria’s young population.

In the next 10 years, the number of 15–24-year-old Nigerians is set to increase by more than 12 million and the high number of working-age people relative to those who are too young or old to work can give Nigeria a sizable demographic dividend while a lack of productive jobs could turn the demographic dividend to a demographic burden. It warned Nigeria that creating jobs is not enough to lift people out of poverty as high employment and high poverty can co-exist.

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Dollar soars, bitcoin hits record, stocks swing as Trump win seen

The dollar surged and bitcoin hit a record high Wednesday as traders bet on a victory for Donald Trump as he picked up key swing states needed to take the White House, ramping up bets on fresh tax cuts, tariffs and rising inflation.

While polls had shown the race on a knife edge, the Republican appeared to be faring better than his Democratic opponent Vice President Kamala Harris as results rolled in.

Both candidates picked up expected wins in safe states, but indications that the business tycoon was on course for a second term boosted the so-called Trump Trade.

The tycoon won Georgia and North Carolina, with others still up in the air, while US networks declared him the winner in key battleground Pennsylvania with Fox News calling the election in his favour.

News that the former president’s party had won control of the Senate boosted the prospect of sweeping tax cuts, more tariffs and deregulation — seen as a boost for the greenback.

The dollar jumped 1.5 percent to 154.33 yen, its highest since July, while it was also up more than one percent against the euro and more than three percent against the Mexican peso.

Bitcoin piled more than $6,000 higher to a record $75,371.69, topping its previous peak of $73,797.98 in March.

Trump has pledged to make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and to put tech billionaire Elon Musk in charge of a wide-ranging audit of governmental waste.

“The price of bitcoin has closely followed Trump’s position in the polls and on betting markets,” Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, said ahead of Tuesday’s US election.

Investors are “potentially taking the view that a Republican victory would lead to a surge in demand for the digital currency”, he added.

Analysts said a clean sweep of Congress and the White House for Trump and Republicans would likely boost the dollar and Treasury yields owing to his plans to cut taxes and impose tariffs on imports.

Republican control of the Senate and House “could bring sweeping spending or tax policy shifts. Still, congressional gridlock could be the ultimate volatility suppressor”, said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.

And Peter Esho, economist and founder at Esho Capital, said: “The markets are scrambling to figure out what happens next, but for the time being, the market is pricing in a higher growth and higher inflation outlook.”

Such an outcome could provide a headache for Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell as he continues his battle to bring inflation to heel, with Trump’s plans considered inflationary.

The election comes as the central bank prepares to deliver its latest policy decision Thursday amid expectations it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, having lowered them by 50 points in September.

The dollar’s surge against the yen rallied stocks more than three percent in Tokyo at one point thanks to gains in exporters, while markets Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai and Bangkok also rose.

However, there were losses in Shanghai, Seoul, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta.

Hong Kong was also well down — at one point diving almost three percent — on worries about the impact of a Trump presidency on China’s economy and relations between Beijing and Washington.

Traders had been given a strong lead from Wall Street, where all three main indexes climbed more than one percent.

While the result of the election is being closely followed globally, it is of real interest in China after Trump vowed to ratchet up a trade battle with the economic titan by imposing massive tariffs on goods from the country.

The vote comes as Chinese leaders hold a key meeting to hammer out a package of stimulus measures aimed at kickstarting growth and providing support to the colossal property sector, which is mired in a painful debt crisis.

– Key figures around 0710 GMT –

Dollar/yen: UP at 154.21 yen from 151.60 yen on Tuesday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0711 from $1.0930

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2853 from $1.3035

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.32 from 83.82 pence

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.6 percent at 39,480.67 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.6 percent at 20,467.69

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,383.81 (close)

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.9 percent at $70.59 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 2.0 percent at $74.03 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.0 percent at 42,221.88 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,172.39 (close)

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Bitcoin hits high record of more than $75,000 as Trump win seen

Bitcoin soared to a new record high on Wednesday as traders bet on victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential race, with the tycoon seen as the pro-crypto candidate.

The digital currency hit as much as $75,005.08 at around 0300 GMT, topping its previous all-time peak of $73,797.98 achieved in March.

“The price of bitcoin has closely followed Trump’s position in the polls and on betting markets,” Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, said ahead of Tuesday’s US election.

Investors are “potentially taking the view that a Republican victory would lead to a surge in demand for the digital currency”, he added.

During his presidency Trump referred to cryptocurrencies as a scam but has since radically changed his position, even launching his own platform for the unit.

“A Trump victory could be the catalyst that pushes the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency into uncharted territory,” said Nigel Green of deVere, also before the vote.

“His return to office would likely have a renewed emphasis on deregulation, tax incentives, and economic policies favorable to alternative investments, such as Bitcoin,” Green added.

Trump has pledged to make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world,” and to put tech billionaire and right-wing conspiracy theorist Elon Musk in charge of a wide-ranging audit of governmental waste.

The previous Trump term saw corporate tax cuts that brought more liquidity to markets, encouraging investment into high-growth assets such as cryptocurrency.

Trump announced in  September that he, along with his sons and entrepreneurs, would launch a digital currency platform named World Liberty Financial.

But it had a faltering sales launch earlier this month, with only a fraction of its tokens that went on the market finding a buyer.

World Liberty Financial enables users to lend or borrow cryptocurrencies to or from one another — a service already offered by many platforms, one of the best-known of which is Aave.

Cryptocurrencies have made headlines since their creation, from their extreme volatility to the collapse of several industry giants, foremost among them the FTX exchange platform.

In the run-up to the election, Trump apparently became the first former president to use bitcoin in a purchase, as he bought burgers at a New York City restaurant, which hailed it as a “historic transaction”.

“Who wants a hamburger?” Trump announced to fellow diners in September, days after he launched his platform.

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FG terminates Julius Berger’s dual carriageway contract

The federal government has terminated the contract for the rehabilitation of the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway with Contract No. 6350, Section I (Abuja-Kaduna), based on non-compliance with reviewed cost, scope, and terms, stoppage of work, and refusal to remobilize to the site by Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) Plc.

The company was summoned for a meeting with the Management of the Federal Ministry of Works on 4th November 2024, but the contractor refused to show up, hence the termination of the contract based on effluxion of time and non-performance.

Minister of Works, David Umahi, through the Director of Press of the ministry, Mohammed S. Ahmed, said the decision for termination was borne out of several months of going back and forth without any meaningful progress reached at a management meeting of the Ministry.

According to Umahi, the Ministry has, in the last 13 months, been in constant talks with the company in order to reach an amiable position on the said alignment but to no avail.

Nigerians may wish to know that the contract, which was divided into three (3) sections, was awarded to Berger on 20th December 2017 and flagged off by Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, at an initial sum of N155,748,178,425.50 billion.

He noted that on 18th June 2018, Sections II (Kaduna – Zaria) and III (Zaria – Kano) were partially completed and handed over during the former administration, adding that since then it has been one variation and augmentation after another, and finally, the present Minister of Works directed for the redesigning and re-scoping of Section I of the contract.

“The alignment was divided into two, with one phase redesigned to be on continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP), while the remaining was with asphaltic pavement. Approval for Section I, Phase 1 for a length of 38 (thirty-eight) kilometres on concrete pavement was given to Messrs Dangote Industries (Nig.) Ltd, while the remaining 127 kilometres remained with the substantive contractor.”

He further explained that Phase 1 was flagged off on 17th October 2024 with a 14-month completion period, but due to the stalemate of the contract and, most importantly, the desire of President Bola Tinubu, as encapsulated in the Renewed Hope Agenda infrastructure initiative, to see to the completion of this laudable project.

The Works Minister also stated that, to alleviate the sufferings of Nigerians plying the road, the Ministry re-scoped it and got the approval of the Federal Executive Council.

The award for the re-scoping and downward review of the contract for the rehabilitation in favour of Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) Plc from the sum of N797 billion to N740 billion was granted and conveyed to the company on 3rd October 2024.

“As due to the socio-economic importance of the road as a vital artery connecting Abuja, the FCT, to the North, the Ministry conveyed the approval for a Final Offer to the company on 23rd October 2024, stating that it should agree, in writing, to accept the reviewed contract sum of N740 billion within seven (7) days or risk the termination of the said contract.”

The Minister therefore said, “It is a sad commentary on the Company that rather than accepting the offer, they tinkered with the Bills of Quantities, as well as that of Engineering Measurements and Evaluation via a letter to the Ministry dated 29th October 2024.”

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I won’t sack workers – Aiyedatiwa

Gov. Lucky Aiyedatiwa of Ondo State has assured workers that his administration has no plan to downsize.

Aiyedatiwa made the promise on Monday in Akure during the Ondo State Public Service Week Celebration Lecture with the theme: “Creating and Managing a Future-Ready Public Service: A Pathway to Sustainable Development”.

The governor also assured the workers of his administration’s commitment to prompt and regular payment of salaries, allowances and pensions.

“The gradual recruitment into critical sectors of the Service to address acute personnel gaps will also continue as much as practicable.

“I want to assure you that even with the financial burden that all of these may attract, our administration will never ever contemplate downsising the workforce.

“In all honesty, the Public Service requires to be rejigged and equipped to upscale its roles and processes to meet the trends of best world practices in Public Administration.

“The time has come, therefore, for the Service to be more proactive, innovative, dynamic and be tech-driven.

“The capacity of the institutions and its operators must be enhanced for effective and efficient service delivery to justify the huge resources invested in it and to serve the society better.

“I have no doubt in my mind, therefore, that this forum will come with a great impartation for our public servants,” he said.
Aiyedatiwa, while assuring the workers of the payment of the new minimum wage, congratulated them for the 2024 celebration.

Earlier, the Head of Service, Mr Bayo Philip, appreciated the governor for his moral and physical support toward the welfare of public servants in the state.

Philip thanked the governor for the constant payment of workers’ salaries, key appointments, and the promotion of over 5,040 civil servants in the state.

He stressed the essential role of the public service in fostering forward-thinking governance and highlighted the administration’s commitment to regular salary payments, pensions and the provision of 2024 leave bonuses.

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Naira depreciates by 0.6% against dollar 

The Naira depreciated at the official market on Monday, trading at N1,676.90 to the dollar.

Data from the official trading platform of the FMDQ Exchange, a platform overseeing the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), revealed that Naira lost N10.18.

This represents a 0.61 per cent loss when compared to the previous trading on Friday, Nov. 1, when it exchanged at N1,666.72 to a dollar.

Also, the total daily turnover reduced to 79.47 million dollars on Monday, down from 94.20 million dollars recorded on Friday.

At the Investor’s and Exporter’s (I&E) window, the Naira traded between N1,690.00 and N1,591.60 against the dollar.

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Textile Industry Decline Costs Nigeria N30 Billion, Says FG

The federal government has revealed that the country’s neglect of the textile industry has cost Nigeria over N30 billion in raw material imports.

The government expressed regret over the loss, emphasizing that these funds could have bolstered foreign exchange (FX) liquidity within the country.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) paints a grim picture of the industry’s decline.

The number of textile factories in Nigeria has dropped from 200 to just 20, while employment has plummeted from over 500,000 workers to only 20,000.

The downturn is attributed to several factors, including the high cost of imported textile raw materials, an influx of cheaper Asian products—especially from China—smuggling, and the importation of substandard fabrics.

Dr. Kingsley Uzoma, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Agribusiness & Productivity and Housing, discussed these challenges in an interview, noting that President Bola Tinubu is determined to revitalize the economy by diversifying revenue and foreign exchange sources. He said the president is prioritizing the non-oil sector, with a focus on cotton, cocoa, cashew, and rubber to drive economic growth.

Dr. Uzoma also highlighted efforts to revive the textile industry, which has been neglected for years.

He revealed that Vice President Kashim Shettima recently hosted a meeting at the Presidential Villa with key stakeholders, including the governors of Lagos and Imo states, to discuss strategies for rebuilding the industry.

“Cotton was once a major contributor to our GDP and a significant employer,” Uzoma said.

He referenced the days before Nigeria’s implementation of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), when northern Nigeria alone had 1.2 million cotton farmers, and 700,000 Nigerians were directly and indirectly employed in the textile and garment industry.

In addition to supplying domestic markets, Nigerian-made garments were exported to neighboring countries like Benin, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, bolstering regional trade.

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