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Dollar strengthens as bets on Trump’s presidency rise post-debate

The dollar rose Tuesday and Asia equities were mixed as investors weighed the possibility of another Donald Trump presidency after last week’s poor debate performance by incumbent Joe Biden.

Speculation about a second term for the Republican Party rose on the Supreme Court’s ruling that all former leaders had “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for “official acts” taken while in office but could still face criminal penalties for “unofficial acts.”

The decision comes as Trump faces criminal charges over his attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden, but that trial had been put on hold while judges considered his immunity claims.

Bets on a second term for the controversial tycoon rose after Thursday’s debate, in which he was widely considered to have come out on top after Biden struggled through answers and stumbled over his lines.

That led to calls for him to step down due to worries over his mental state, but Democrats have pushed back and are reportedly seeking a vote next month that would formally make him the party candidate for November’s poll.

“Those two headlines, and given the reaction to President Biden’s first debate, continue to suggest a Trump presidency is looking more likely at this stage,” Tapas Strickland at the National Australia Bank said in a commentary.

Observers said the prospect of another Trump presidency fueled talk of tax cuts and a fresh spike in inflation, pushing up yields and denting hopes for interest rate cuts.

That, in turn, boosted the dollar against its main peers, pushing back to 38-year highs against the yen, putting Japanese authorities on alert after they previously warned they were ready to intervene in forex markets to support the unit.

The euro was also a little softer, though it managed to hold most of the gains made Monday in a relief rally that came after the far-right National Rally (NR) looked unlikely to win an absolute majority in French legislative elections, as had been feared.

President Emmanuel Macron and his allies are now involved in intense campaigning and horse-trading ahead of the second round of polls on Sunday as they look to deny NR an absolute majority and control of government.

However, Luca Santos at ACY Securities said: “Based on current results, the two most probable outcomes are a hung parliament without an absolute majority or an RN cohabitation government.

“The high number of constituencies won by the RN, coupled with tight races between left and centre candidates, complicates strategic withdrawals and heightens the risk of an RN cohabitation government, which would be less favourable for the euro.

“Consequently, the euro’s current relief rally is unlikely to persist ahead of the second election round.”

Asian stock markets were mixed, with Hong Kong enjoying a rare surge after a recent run of losses, while Tokyo piled on more than one per cent to end above 40,000 points for the first time since April.

Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai and Jakarta also rose.

However, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Bangkok, Taipei and Manila fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

  • Key figures around 0810 GMT –
    Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 per cent at 40,074.69 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 per cent at 17,769.14 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 2,997.01 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 8,119.33

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0717 from $1.0743 on Monday

Dollar/yen: UP at 161.65 yen from 161.46 yen

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2624 from $1.2648

Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.89 pence from 84.92 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 per cent at $83.43 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 per cent at $86.67 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 0.1 per cent at 39,169.52 (close)

Business

FG to probe claims of tax evasion by mining companies

Uncertainty Looms Over Ministers as Tinubu Considers Major Cabinet Reshuffle

The Federal Government has set up a committee to investigate the taxation and operational disputes between the Osun Government, and Segilola Resources Operating Limited(SROL), a subsidiary of Thor Explorations limited.

The Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dr Dele Alake, made this known in a statement by his Special Assistant on Media, Segun Tomori, on Friday in Abuja.

Alake said that the committee was established to engage both parties with the aim of resolving the dispute and restoring industrial harmony.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the Osun State Government, on Sept. 30, sealed the business premises of SROL, following a court order permitting it to confiscate the company for various flagrant tax violations and other operational matters.

The state government had charged the company with unethical business practices, and tax evasion amounting to approximately 1.9 million US dollars.

He said that the committee would be chaired by Dr Mary Ogbe, the Permanent Secretary of the ministry.

According to him, the committee will include representatives of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Ministry of Labour and Employment, and the National Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture.

He emphasised that the Federal Government has been showcasing investment opportunities in the solid minerals sector to the global audience.

He, however, cautioned that the closure of mining operations by sub-nationals could abort efforts to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and provoke divestment.

“ Indiscriminate closures of mining operations by sub-nationals raises the risk of discouraging foreign direct investments and even worse, possible divestment by existing companies.

“Mining is on the exclusive legislative list. The Ministry of Solid Minerals should be consulted before such disruptive actions are taken,” he said.

The minister restated the Federal Government’s determination to open up Nigeria’s landscape to boost economic growth, increase employment opportunities, and facilitate community development.

He maintained that any interruption in industrial production could undermine the goals of economic prosperity.

Alake urged both parties to cooperate with the committee in the discharge of their duties.

He added that, while the issues were being resolved, production should be allowed to continue at the company.

“ I hereby call on Gov Ademola Adeleke of Osun and the management of Thor Exploration Limited to sue for peace and industrial harmony in the interest of the workers.

“I want them to think of some many dependents, who may be adversely affected by closure of operations at the factory,” he said.

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Business

CBN sells $543m to banks to check market volatility

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it sold 543.5 million dollars to authorised dealer banks between Sept. 6 and Sept. 30.

According to a statement issued by Omolara Duke, the Director, the Financial Markets Department of the CBN, the transaction was through a two-way quote at the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on 11 dealing days.

Duke said that the spot sales was to reduce observed market volatility driven by high demand for commodity imports and seasoned demand for fx.

She said that the value date for all the transactions was T+2.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that T+2 refers to the settlement dates of security transactions that occur on a transaction date plus two days.

“This statement is to educate and provide guidance on the general public the pricing of fx.

“This is by taking a clue from the range of rates at which gx was sold by the CBN to authorised Dealers.

“The CBN will continue to facilitate the supply of fx into the NFEM as part of its holistic fx management strategy,” she said.

NAN recalls that the CBN had earlier announced the introduction of an Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), for Foreign Exchange (FX) transactions in NFEM.

Duke said that the new system was expected to enhance governance, transparency, and facilitate a market driven exchange rate that would be accessible to the public.

“This development is expected to reduce speculative activities, eliminate market distortions, and give the CBN improved oversight capabilities to effectively regulate the market.

“Authorised dealers will subsequently conduct all foreign exchange transactions in the interbank Fx market on the EFEMS approved by the CBN where transactions will be reflected immediately,” she said.

She said that there would be a two-week test run in November, adding that the apex bank would publish real time prices when the EFEMS becomes operational.

She said that the CBN would also buy and sell orders from the system and in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA), publish the rules for the EFEMS.

“The Nigerian FX Code and revised Market Operating Guidelines for the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market will also provide guidance to market participants.

“Authorised dealers are, therefore, required to comply with extant guidelines and regulations governing the Nigeria foreign exchange market.

“They should ensure that all necessary documentation, training, and systems integrations are concluded ahead of the go live date,” she said.

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Business

CBN introduces electronic foreign exchange matching system to curb speculation

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has announced the introduction of an Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), for Foreign Exchange (FX) transactions in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).

According to a statement issued by Omolara Duke, the Director of the Financial Markets Department, the EFEMS will be implemented by Dec. 1.

Duke said that the new system was expected to enhance governance, and transparency, and facilitate a market-driven exchange rate that would be accessible to the public.

“This development is expected to reduce speculative activities, eliminate market distortions, and give the CBN improved oversight capabilities to effectively regulate the market.

“Authorised dealers will subsequently conduct all foreign exchange transactions in the interbank Fx market on the EFEMS approved by the CBN where transactions will be reflected immediately,” she said.

She said that there would be a two-week test run in November, adding that the apex bank would publish real-time prices when the EFEMS starts becomes operational.

She said that the CBN would also buy and sell orders from the system and in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA), publish the rules for the EFEMS.

“The Nigerian FX Code and revised Market Operating Guidelines for the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market will also provide guidance to market participants.

“Authorised dealers are, therefore, required to comply with extant guidelines and regulations governing the Nigeria foreign exchange market.

“They should ensure that all necessary documentation, training, and systems integrations are concluded ahead of the go live date,” she said.

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Business

FG Halts VAT On Diesel, Cooking Gas To woo Investors

The Federal Government has introduced new fiscal incentives to boost foreign investments in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

The two incentives were unveiled by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun in a statement on Wednesday.

According to the statement by the Finance Ministry, and signed by the Director of Information and Public Relations, Mohammed Manga said the incentives are aimed at revitalising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

It also announced that the importation of key energy products and infrastructure, including diesel, feed gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Compressed Natural Gas, electric vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas infrastructure, and clean cooking equipment would no longer require value-added tax payment.

Manga said the initiative would position Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for global oil and gas investments, bolster energy security, and accelerate Nigeria’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

This policy directive arrives alongside new divestment plans from ExxonMobil and Seplat, which President Bola Tinubu said would receive ministerial approval in the coming days.

The statement read, “In its avowed determination towards ensuring a boost in the nation’s upstream and downstream sector, the Federal Government has introduced groundbreaking concessions aimed at revitalising the industry.

“This is just as the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, today unveiled two major fiscal incentives aimed at revitalising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector: Value Added Tax Modification Order 2024 and Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Oil & Gas Production, in accordance with the Oil & Gas Companies (Tax Incentives, Exemption, Remission, etc.) Order 2024.”

Explaining further, Manga said, “The VAT Modification Order 2024 introduces exemptions on a range of key energy products and infrastructure, including diesel, feed gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Compressed Natural Gas, electric vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas infrastructure, and clean cooking equipment.

“These measures are designed to lower the cost of living, bolster energy security, and accelerate Nigeria’s transition to cleaner energy sources.”

It explained that the notice of tax incentives for deep offshore oil & gas production provides new tax reliefs for deep offshore projects, stressing that, “This initiative is aimed at positioning Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for global oil and gas investments.”

The ministry said these fiscal incentives reflect the administration’s steadfast commitment to promoting sustainable growth, enhancing energy security, and driving economic prosperity for all Nigerians.

The statement added, “These reforms are part of a broader series of investment-driven policy initiatives championed by President Bola Tinubu, in line with Policy Directives 40-42.

“They reflect the administration’s strong commitment to fostering sustainable growth in the energy sector and enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness in oil and gas production.

“With these bold initiatives, Nigeria is firmly on track to reclaim its position as a leader in the global oil and gas market.

“These fiscal incentives demonstrate the administration’s unwavering commitment to fostering sustainable growth, enhancing energy security, and driving economic prosperity for all Nigerians,” the statement concluded.

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Return Of Emirates Airlines Will Lead To Competitive Pricing, Says Keyamo

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, on Wednesday said the return of Emirates Airlines to Nigeria after two years will lead to healthy competitive pricing for the good of Nigerians.

He stated this in Lagos upon arrival aboard an Emirates aircraft from the United Arab Emirates, saying the airline had returned to stay and that the Bilateral Air Service Agreement discussed was to secure the route for local operators.

“We signed a new BASA defining our relationship altogether, again making it healthier, more open, and for the benefit of the Nigerian people,” Keyamo said.

“With this, we have more competition on different international routes now. That is what it’s all about to ensure healthy competition. A healthy competition leads to competitive pricing for the benefit of the Nigerian people.”

The minister explained that local carriers now have the opportunity to fly to any destination in the UAE.

“It was especially damaging because we know that Nigerians have a lot of investments in the UAE. They have many interests and investments there, so eventually, it was not an adventure in self-glorification; it was a fight for the people of Nigeria, especially.

“But you also know that the reason we fought for this is that Dubai, in particular, is a major hub of the world; it links virtually every country,” he added.

Emirates Airlines suspended flight operations to Nigeria in November 2022 over its inability to repatriate its $85 million revenue trapped in the country.

Keyamo announced in April that he received a letter from the airline confirming that all the issues had been resolved and that he was prepared to resume flights.

To resolve the issue, both Nigeria and the UAE on September 27, agreed on reciprocal rights ahead of the resumption of Emirates Airlines’ flight operations to Nigeria.

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Emirates resumes flight operations to Nigeria after two-year hiatus


Emirates, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) flag carrier, has officially resumed its flight operations to Nigeria after nearly two years of suspension.

The first flight, EK 783, landed at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport (MMIA) in Lagos on Tuesday afternoon, arriving at 3:32 PM after an over eight-hour journey.

The airline suspended its operations in November 2022 due to the inability to repatriate approximately $85 million in revenue trapped in Nigeria.

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, announced on April 8, 2024, that he received a letter from Emirates confirming the resolution of all outstanding issues, enabling the resumption of flights.

On September 27, Nigeria and the UAE reached an agreement on reciprocal rights in anticipation of the resumption of Emirates flights. Keyamo expressed satisfaction with the outcome, stating, “We are pleased to have secured reciprocal operational rights for Nigerian airlines, which will not only deepen our bilateral ties but also strengthen the global competitiveness of Nigeria’s aviation industry.”

In a statement, Tunde Moshood, the special adviser on media and communications to the minister, noted the significance of the new Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) established during negotiations.

“Crucially, the negotiations also yielded a significant agreement on reciprocal rights, ensuring that Nigerian airlines will soon have the opportunity to commence direct flight operations to the UAE,” Moshood said.

“This marks a historic development for Nigeria’s aviation industry, expanding international connectivity and offering more options to travellers between the two nations.”

Keyamo also remarked on the government’s commitment to restoring air travel, stating that the recent developments signal dedication to ensuring the best outcomes for both Nigerian and international travellers.

He added that the resumed flight operations by Emirates and the new BASA will significantly enhance tourism, business, and cultural exchanges between Nigeria and the UAE, fostering economic growth.

Emirates had previously suspended flights in October 2022 due to the challenges in repatriating funds and had expressed hopes for a resolution with the Nigerian government.

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